CIA: Demographic Aspects of the Arab-Israeli Dispute (1973)

Posted: February 11, 2013 by Rex Brynen in 1973, US

The Central Intelligence Agency has recently released an account of US intelligence assessment of the October 1973 Arab-Israeli war, drawing upon a number of newly declassified reports. Among the items cited is an 18 page CIA analysis of “Demographic Aspects of the Arab-Israeli Dispute,” dated 24 August 1973:

Since the 1967 war a new problem has arisen; i.e., the demographic threat posed by Arabs living inside the cease-fire lines. The threat stems from Israel’s control of about 1.5 million Arabs, those in occupied territories and in pre-war Israel itself, and from the almost inexorable intertwining of the two areas. In the future, the Arab population is apt to grow more rapidly than the Jewish population…. In absence of a peace settlement with the Arabs, a kind of territorial imperative operates in Tel Aviv. This being so, Jewish control inside the cease-fire lines will come to depend more and more on either denying the Arabs political rights or goading them into leaving.

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